Sunday, April 08, 2007

System #1 - 2007 MLB Underdog System

Here we go guys. Baseball system #1.

1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)

3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today’s Web site. For April, I suggest using last years stats, and in May switching to this year.

4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make wagers 1.25% of your bankroll (or take bankroll and make it into 80 units) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

5) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

Simple enough, right? Don't worry, I will be posting these plays every day if you don't want to do the homework.

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