Sunday, April 17, 2016

Best Gambling Strategy - Bankroll Management

If you love online sports betting, the heart racing rush that comes from being in action, then this is for you. A good gambling strategy can be the difference to a gambler between having his session bankroll tapped out in 2 hours to being able to gamble for 2 days and 2 nights straight and still having a chance of being ahead.

Whichever particular gambling strategy you do settle into, remember that the most important gambling strategy is Bankroll Management, make sure you are playing at a level that your bankroll justifies. The Golden Rule is that your average bet size should be 2% of your session bankroll. So either get more money or just bet a lower level. This will ensure that you won't face alot of volatility and be taken out by the first cold streak. No gambling strategy will be very successful without good bankroll management.

You can go ahead and read around now but remember gambling is fun, especially when you finish a monster rush but keep it under control. More than the house most gamblers will destroy themselves. Work out how much much you can afford a week, $50 or $100 or $1000 whatever, and keep your gambling budgeted and your bet sizes appropriate. Play smart, keep your action on the lowest house edges and you'll have fun. You'll even get your share of big winning nights.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical approach to bankroll management and growth. It is interesting to players who want to know what the most mathematically efficient percentage of their bankroll they should gamble to maximize their bankroll growth.

The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula:

f* = percentage of player’s bankroll
b = the odds being offered on the wager
p = the probability of winning
q = the probability of losing, i.e. (1 – p)

For example, we have a horse race where the bookies are offering 2-to-1 but on some inside information we judge the true odds to be around 3-to-1. Also, our current bankroll is $10,000. So according to the Kelly Criterion:

b = 2-to-1 = 2
p = 3-to-2 = 40% = 0.4
q = (1-p) = 0.6

f* = ( (2 * 0.4) – 0.6 ) / 2
= 0.2 / 2
= 0.1 or 10%

So we should put 10% of our bankroll on the horse or $1000 of our $10,000 bankroll.

The Kelly Criterion is used by horse and sports gamblers but also by fund managers for stocks and other financial investments. You could even apply it to poker, where often the odds are as if all players have equal chance of winning but the probabilities of each player winning are not equal.

The Kelly Criterion is a much more sophisticated approach to bankroll management beyond the ad hoc rules of thumb. Yet, in chasing the fastest long run bankroll growth the Kelly Criterion is quite aggressive. In application there is a real risk in making a mistake in assessing the true odds. To reduce this risk and the inherent volatility of betting so much your bankroll, it is common to bet half of what the Kelly Criterion suggests.

This approach sets the Kelly Criterion more as a maximum cap on the betting amount. This makes sense because betting anything over what the Kelly Criterion suggests is counter-productive and will only reduce long run bankroll growth. Never-the-less, if you want to go for maximum bankroll growth, the Kelly Criterion will tell you how much to bet in order to achieve the highest level of long run bankroll growth.

Good Luck

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

College Basketball Odds & Lines

Even though most people are probably still happily progressing with their NFL betting, I've decided to get a jump on this season of College Basketball. The success of my annual March Madness contest (and related pages) means that I would like to get ahead of the curve with betting on the NCAA.

The first games are a little more than two weeks from now and usually nothing exciting happens (save a few season opening tournaments) for another week or two; but it's nice not to try and get prepared for the NCAA tournament until the last minute. Because there is very little of substance to report, instead I will give you a quick tutorial on betting on these upcoming college basketball games.

College Basketball Betting

When most people think of college basketball lines they think of 'March Madness'--otherwise known as the NCAA Basketball Tournament—and filling out office pool brackets. That's unfortunate since professional sports bettors have long considered college basketball one of the most 'beatable' sports for a variety of reasons. There are so many teams on the board that the NCAA basketball betting enthusiast can become a 'specialist' and focus on teams from a specific region or conference. This allows them to find value against the college basketball lines or pointspread since bookmakers have to 'generalize' and set numbers on the entire board.

With so many good sports books available to players all over the world there's no reason to bet into unfavorable NCAA college basketball odds. Always shopping for and betting into the most favorable college basketball lines is essential for long term success at sports betting. Whether you're betting on NBA or college hoops, NFL or college football or any other sport there's no getting around the fact that long term winners do the work necessary to make sure that they're betting at the right college basketball pointspread.

The specific nature of college basketball betting makes pointspread shopping all the more important. With so many teams on the board and so many games being played every week you'll find more disparity from sports book to sports book in NCAA basketball lines than in any other sport. Just by doing some shopping and finding college basketball odds that are a point or two more favorable and doing it on a consistent basis can turn a losing season into a highly profitable winning season.

Since it is such a huge event in the college basketball betting world let's talk a little bit about the NCAA tournament aka 'March Madness'. 'March Madness' is one of the biggest mainstream sporting events of the year and a huge cash cow for the NCAA itself. The CBS TV network pays the NCAA over a half billion dollars per year and this amount makes up over 90% of its operating budget. It's also one of the biggest sports betting events of the year—some suggest that it's an even bigger deal than the Super Bowl since it's spread out over multiple days. In addition to college basketball pointspread betting on the game with sports books, NCAA tournament office pools are common in businesses large and small.

Whether you're betting on the finals of 'March Madness' or an early season non-conference game it's important to always get the best of it. This means shopping for the most favorable college basketball odds offered at more than one sports book. The extra work you do before the game will translate into more money in your pocket at the end of the season.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

NFL Betting and Margin of Victory

The NFL season is almost upon us and people all over American will be rejoicing. The NFL season has a lot of people excited: fans of the teams, fantasy football owners, and yes, people who bet on football. Betting lines are always a gamble, but here's some interesting things that you should know if you are planning on betting on the spread of an NFL game this season.

Have you ever wondered why so many NFL betting lines are set at -3, -4, or -7? It seems like it happens a lot doesn't it? Let’s take a look and see exactly how many times games land on these key numbers.

In the last 20 years the number 3 is the biggest key number in NFL betting. 782 games have landed on three for a total of 15.38 %. The second most common number is 7 with 8.04 % of the games landing on that number. If you add those together you find that over 23% of all NFL games land on either 7 or 3. That is nearly a quarter of all NFL games. Now you know why those two numbers are so popular with NFL linemakers. Here is the full chart showing the margin of victory by NFL teams in the past 21 years. This includes all games except the Super Bowls.

Margin of Victory Percentage of Games

0 - 0.20%

2 - 3.74% 3 - 15.38%

4 - 5.58%

5 - 3.15%

6 - 5.76%

7 - 8.04%

8 - 2.56% 9 - 1.83%

10  - 5.80%

11 - 3.28%

12 - 1.63%

13 - 3.13%

14 - 4.66%

15 - 1.63%

16 - 2.22%

17 - 3.85%

18 - 2.10%

19 - 1.80%

20 - 2.62%

21 - 2.62%

22 - 0.83%

23 - 1.20%

24 - 2.12%

25 - 0.92%

26 - 0.65%

27 - 1.67%

28 - 1.49%

29 - 0.31%

30 - 0.59%

31 - 1.18%

32 - 0.55%

33 - 0.26%

34 - 0.63%

35 - 0.57%

All of the margins higher than 35 are less than .50%

This table shows you the key numbers in the NFL, and why so many times when you look at the betting line, that you see numbers like 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14. The oddsmakers are well aware of these exact numbers and they will shade their lines accordingly.

This is one of the main reasons that many sportsbooks won’t let the bettors buy a ½ point on or off a 3 point spread. Since there are over 15% of all NFL games ending with a final margin of 3, sportsbooks might find it too risky for the chance of getting middle. This is why some football betting websites, like some of the ones found at, won’t allow customers to buy a half point down to 2.5 or a half point up to 3.5.

If you find a sportsbook that allows you to buy the half point on or off of 3, then it is always worth it for you to do it. The table shows that it is not worth it for any other number, including 7. It just does not prove profitable. Remember in your NFL betting this year that the key numbers are important and will affect you all year long.

Saturday, May 24, 2014

Bodog Poker Room offers an assortment of exciting online games. Whether your passion is sports wagering or casino games, Bodog is sure to have something you'll like. But it wasn't until a few years ago that Bodog included the latest crave ... poker.

At first glance, Bodog's in house developed poker software is more than just aesthetically pleasing. It also carries stability and ease of navigation. Bodog provides exciting multi-table tournaments as well as single table action. But be wary of low limit tables, however, as there are many loose players who are willing to fish for the extra card. You'll find tighter and more challenging players as you move up to a higher limit.

Sign Up Bonus

Bodog offers a 100% cash bonus on your first deposit. Although it's lower then some poker sites, it is up to $1000 bonus which you can receive if you place a $1000 deposit. To withdraw the bonus, you must earn Bodog poker points by contributing rake in cash games or by paying the tournament entry fee. For every $1 of rake contributed, you will receive 1 poker point. For every $1 paid in tournament entry fees, you will receive 3 points.

  • Get 100% Cash Bonus on your first deposit. $1,000 max bonus.
  • To withdraw the cash bonus, you must earn Bodog poker points. These bonuses will be released to your account in 6 levels.
  • You will have 60 days from the time that you deposit to receive the bonus money into your account.

The software is one of the easiest to use. It allows for playing multiple tables at once. The interface is very well designed and stable. Statistical data is also available. The sound effects could use some improvements but you have the option of disabling this in the Options menu. An added feature is the ability to upload pictures to use as your players image.

The featured games include the 5 most popular online poker games including Texas Hold'em, Omaha, Omaha Hi/Lo, Seven Card Stud and Seven Card Hi/Lo. The vast majority of the players on the site tend to stick to the Texas Hold'em tables and tournaments. You may want to be careful playing Omaha or 7 card stud if you are a beginner, because you may not be aware when you should fold at first.

Bodog may not have the same volume as some poker sites but it is steadily building up its members. It averages at about 2,000 real money player count. You are likely to find a seat at a table or a short waiting list. The majority of the traffic (approximately 85%) are at Texas Hold'em tables.

The competition at Bodog is fair to competitive on higher limit tables. You'll find that many players will play the river in low limit tables.


The amount of points that you collect on the rake is fairly easy to understand. If you contribute 1¢ to 4¢, you will receive 0.05 poker points. 5¢ to ¢24 will receive 0.10 poker points. 25¢ to 49¢ will receive 0.25 poker points. $0.50 to $0.99 will receive 0.50 poker points and $1 to $3 of rake collected will receive 1 poker point.

You can also earn poker points through tournament fees and time spent playing at a table. For every $1.00 in tournament fees you pay, you can earn 3 poker points. To earn points playing at a table, you get 1 point for every 60 seconds of playing time for a maximum of 500 poker points per month. Sitting out does not count as playing time.

The rake contributed will be determined by the table limits and the number of players at the table.

Table Limit  # of Players  Rake Collected
$0.05/$0.10  2 $0.01 for each $0.20 in pot, maximum $0.02
$0.05/$0.10  3 to 5  $0.01 for each $0.20 in pot, maximum $0.05
$0.05/$0.10  6 or more  $0.01 for each $0.20 in pot, maximum $0.10
$0.25/$0.50  2 $0.05 for each $1.00 in pot, maximum $0.10
$0.25/$0.50  3 to 5  $0.05 for each $1.00 in pot, maximum $0.25
$0.25/$0.50  6 or more  $0.05 for each $1.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$0.50/$1.00  2 $0.10 for each $2.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$0.50/$1.00  3 to 5  $0.10 for each $2.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$0.50/$1.00  6 or more  $0.10 for each $2.00 in pot, maximum $1.50
$1.00/$2.00  2 $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$1.00/$2.00  3 to 5  $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$1.00/$2.00  6 or more  $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $1.50
$2.00/$4.00  2 $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$2.00/$4.00  3 $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$2.00/$4.00  4 to 5  $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$2.00/$4.00  6 or more  $0.25 for each $5.00 in pot, maximum $3.00
$3.00/$6.00  2 $0.25 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$3.00/$6.00  3 $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$3.00/$6.00  4 to 5  $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$3.00/$6.00  6 or more  $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $3.00
$4.00/$8.00  2 $0.25 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$4.00/$8.00  3 $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$4.00/$8.00  4 to 5  $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$4.00/$8.00  6 or more  $0.50 for each $10.00 in pot, maximum $3.00
$5.00/$10.00  2 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$5.00/$10.00  3 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$5.00/$10.00  4 to 5  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$5.00/$10.00  6 or more  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $3.00
$6.00/$12.00  2 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $0.50  
$6.00/$12.00  3 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$6.00/$12.00  4 to 5  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$6.00/$12.00  6 or more  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $3.00  
$8.00/$16.00  2 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$8.00/$16.00  3 $0.50 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $1.00  
$8.00/$16.00  4 to 5  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $2.00  
$8.00/$16.00  6 or more  $1.00 for each $20.00 in pot, maximum $3.00   
$10.00/$20.00  2 $0.50 for each $40.00 in pot, maximum $0.50
$10.00/$20.00  3 $0.50 for each $40.00 in pot, maximum $1.00  
$10.00/$20.00  4 to 5  $1.00 for each $40.00 in pot, maximum $2.00  
$10.00/$20.00  6 or more  $1.00 for each $40.00 in pot, maximum $3.00   
$15.00/$30.00  2 $0.50 on $40.00 in pot, maximum $0.50   
$15.00/$30.00  3 $1.00 on $40.00 in pot, maximum $1.00
$15.00/$30.00  4 to 5  $1.00 on $40.00 in pot, $1.00 on $70.00 in pot, maximum $2.00
$15.00/$30.00  6 or more  $1.00 on $40.00, $1.00 on $70.00, $1.00 on $100.00, maximum $3.00
$20.00/$40.00  2 $0.50 on $40.00, maximum $0.50
$20.00/$40.00  3 $1.00 on $40.00, maximum $1.00
$20.00/$40.00  4 to 5  $1.00 on $40.00, $1.00 on $70.00, maximum $2.00
$20.00/$40.00  6 or more  $1.00 on $40.00, $1.00 on $70.00, $1.00 on $100.00, maximum $3.00

Bodog offers very good support. They have support by email and by telephone. The security is top notch as Bodog is one of the leaders in the online wagering industry. You can make deposits by one of the following methods: VISA, VISA Gift Card, and Person-to-Person money transfer.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Best Real Money Poker Sites in the US

Before April of 2011, it used to be very easy to play online poker in the United States. This is the era when PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker were poker giants and claimed much of the American market. However, the DoJ fought back against these two companies and dozens of littler poker rooms by forcing banks and credit card companies to stop payments to and from these websites. They also went and confiscated the .com website addresses from these companies, since the .com domain is directly under the control of the US government.

Since this time, it has been more difficult to find a place to continue to play poker online. Of course, you can always play at PokerStars play money tables, along with most other sites. But, we know that this is neither fun nor does it breed the correct type of competition. Oh, how fun! Another idiot went all in with nothing. And so did half the table. This is just like it would be if these dumbasses were putting up their own money.

The most difficult part of finding a real money poker room that accepts Americans is that it is a bit of a hassle to get your player's account funded. Most people will not be able to use cash directly from their bank account or credit cards. For the most diehard poker players, this hasn't been a problem. But for the casual player, many would rather not go to such lengths to play the games.

If you find where to play poker online for money in US, there have been two reliable ways of funding that real money account. The first is a Visa Gift Card. These gift cards are not tied to a person's accounts and is simply money in the form of a gift card. These cards need to have the funds credited on them in order to transfer the money to your account.

The second way to fund your account is to use a person-to-person money transfer service like Western Union or MoneyGram. This will require you to contact the customer support in order to receive the proper information to ensure that the money goes to the correct account. It also requires you to visit one of these stores in order to make the deposit. A lot of people avoid this option because they aren't looking to make a day out of getting money into their account.

Is Playing Online Poker for Real Money Legal in the United States?

This question has several different answers based upon where you live. On a federal level, it is not illegal for an individual to play online poker for real money. However, it is illegal for a website operator to accept real money wagers from Americans. This is why there are currently no poker websites that are hosted from within the borders of the United States.

If you live in Delaware, Nevada or New Jersey, there are state laws that regulate the poker websites for real money players. The poker sites within these states are not allowed to accept players from other states or other countries as this would be in violation of federal law. The main problem with these legal poker sites is that there is a lack of player base from each individual state to have a really good poker room.

If you live in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin or Wyoming, there are currently laws that prohibit individuals from playing online poker for real money or other online gambling activities. The likelihood of an individual who is playing a real money game being prosecuted is rather low in most states. The greatest chance are in the following states: Alabama, Florida, Hawaii, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and Washington.

If you live in one of the states not mentioned in one of these lists, there currently aren't any laws prohibiting real money online poker as these states defer to the federal laws. Some states, such as California, are having talks about make a state law that regulates online gaming; but currently only the three states listed above currently have completely legal online poker. Other states that have expressed some interest in passing legislation to legalize online poker include Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota and Pennsylvania. If you live in one of the states mentioned in this paragraph, you should write to the state legislators indicating your interest in making online poker regulated. The more states that get regulated, the better the chance that the federal law gets changed.

The three states that are currently legal are expressing an interest to create an interstate poker alliance to combine the pool of players from the three states. This would challenge the federal law and probably isn't viable until other states get on board.

In the not too distant future, there should be several other states that pass legislation that legalizes betting online in one form or another. The big piece to the puzzle is going to be California. Much like other controversial issues such as legalizing marijuana or gay marriage, other states are going to take a wait and see approach before getting on board. If California, with it's massive population, gets legislation passed, it could be the tipping point where a conglomerate of states joins together to regulate online poker.

Much like the end of the prohibition of alcohol, you will have some states that don't join in for a long time (Utah and Alabama). In fact, Alabama didn't end its prohibition of alcohol until the 1960's. That's fine, you simply allow those states to opt out and create their own laws. You can parallel this issue to the state lotteries. For a long time, the lottery wasn't allowed in most states. Now, there are 47 states/district that offer lotteries and only Alaska, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming do not.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Wagering Strategies in Horse Racing

When dealing with the topic of wagering strategies in horse racing, especially if you are going to bet on Kentucky Derby races, there are two things to keep in mind. You want to maximize the ROI (profits), but you also have to be comfortable with the type of bet that you will be using.

Let's examine two different types of wagers - both of which are very profitable;

a)WIN bet. This produces 46% winners, and an ROI (profit) of 28%.

There are two types of Win bets in our BEST BET reports. 1) Betting on one horse, if it's a clear cut standout. 2) Betting equal amounts on two horses (not dutching) if there is no standout.

b)EXACTA bet. This produces 24% winners, but a big ROI (profit) of 42%.

Even though the Exacta produces more profits than the Win bet, there will be more losing streaks. And the losing streaks will tend to be considerably longer.

So, you must decide your losing comfort zone.

There are many different wagering strategies. Your comfort zone should be the deciding factor which one you should use.

Do you still have confidence in your betting even after 15 straight losing bets? And on rare occasions (once or twice a year), the losing streak could reach over 20 straight losers.

Despite the fact that you make more money with the Exacta in the long-run, this type of wager may not be for you.

Some people will not be comfortable and will be quite nervous after 15 to 20 straight losers.

If you are in this category, the Win bet is more suitable for you. You will make good profits, without undue stress.

On the other hand, you may find this whole discussion about losing streaks a non-issue. This is probably the case if you are a veteran handicapper.

If you have a good knowledge of the game, you must be well aware that there are "Longshot" methods out there that are being peddled for big bucks. They are theoretically profitable - but you have to endure 40 or 50 play losing streaks occasionally.

So a 15 to 20 play streak probably doesn't bother you. As long as the handicapping strategy is sound, you know that this is to be expected. And you are very happy to make a 40+% profit in the long-run.

As the old saying goes, "The voice of experience is the best teacher".

Trifecta Betting

Lastly, we will discuss the most popular wager - the TRIFECTA.

While it is extremely popular, it is also the MOST destructive for the average bettor's wallet.

There are many different wagering strategies peddled around when it comes to the Trifecta.

But regardless of which one is used, the Trifecta causes the largest losses to the general public - by a huge margin.

Our Trifecta method shows a very healthy profit; by using the exacta plays and applying it the same way to the Trifecta. But we have two reasons why we aren't recommending it to our clients.

1)The win percentage is only 16%. So it basically becomes a typical "Longshot" type of play. You have these homongous losing streaks. We abhor long losing streaks. The win percentage can be boosted up to over 25% by playing more combinations, but then the long-term profits are reduced substantially.

2)As all of you know, any betting payoff that is $600 or more (300 to 1 odds) is automatically sent to the IRS. Each time you cash such a bet, you must fill out the W-2G IRS form, etc,etc...

We have these money generating plays from Win and Exacta betting.

Who needs the additional aggravations of dealing with the IRS. Enough said.

Methods that are based on betting longshots only, are also among the wagering strategies that you must avoid at all costs - if you want to be profitable.