2012 Superbowl Prediction

There are only a couple of times a year that I still place wagers on sports. I used to really be big into the NBA and MLB, but the past few years I have only bet on March Madness and the Superbowl.

This is a very interesting matchup this year with the two Harbaugh brothers coach the opposing teams. The 49ers are favored over the Ravens by 3.5 points at most sportsbooks. The moneyline is between -160 and -180 ($160 to win $100) for San Francisco and between +140 and +160 ($100 to win $140). The Over/Under is 47.5 points.

I always like finding trends when betting and I've found a couple that I would like to share with you. The first bet is the Total points (over/under) for the game. The last 8 times that the Super bowl total has been 46.5 points or more the Under has won. This dates back to 1999.

The coin flip is another trend that lots of people are betting on. The coin flip was Heads for the past 4 years. There has never been a 5 straight streak for either heads or tails. That is why many people are betting it this year.

Super Bowl Spread

Currently, 56% of the overall wagers on the Spread are for the Baltimore Ravens. The Spread opened at 4.5 points and it has been bet down to 3.5 points. When I see this, I don't like to go with the crowd, unless the Spread gets bet down to 2.5 points or the wagers even up for both sides.

I'll give you the NCAA National Championship for an example. Notre Dame was #1 going in but was still a 10 Point underdog. This was as high as they could make it while still looking like a good bet for Notre Dame. Many people were betting the line down for Notre Dame because they thought it would be a close game.

This game is shaping up the same way. The Ravens dominated in the 4th quarter over New England and San Francisco needed a big comeback against Atlanta. People are feeling good about the Ravens; but the spread hasn't moved much, which has gone relatively unnoticed in the midst of the Harbaugh brothers, Ray Lewis' last game and the Colin Kaepernick show.

If the sportsbooks didn't feel strongly about San Francisco, they wouldn't have opened at 4.5 point favorites. And the fact that this line still hasn't gone under a field goal even with the lopsided betting in favor of Baltimore means that Las Vegas thinks highly of San Francisco.

Final Score Prediction

The final score of the game has only been 3 points or closer once since 2005. I doubt that this game will be either.

That means if you really think that Baltimore is going to win, you should place a Moneyline bet on them or find a sportsbook that offers a moveable line and take Baltimore as a 3.5 point favorite. You should be able to find this at +240 ($100 to win $240).

I personally don't think that the Ravens will win. While Atlanta did choke the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco has consistently beaten good teams that are outside of their division. They also went on the road and beat the Patriots and they dispatched of all four AFC opponents that they faced this year.

I believe that the final score is going to be San Francisco 24, Baltimore 20 and that is the way that I am betting for the game.