It may be the end of the summer and the days are getting shorter, so that is kind of a bummer. But, there are a couple of positive things about this time of year. The kids are going back to school and I no longer have to swim through the air because of the humidity. But, most importantly of all, football is back baby!
College football started this past weekend, and what a weekend it was if you are a fan of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS - formerly Division 1aa). They had a banner weekend with 6 major upsets and 8 wins overall against the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS - formerly Division 1a). The Eastern Washington Eagles led the way with only the third FCS win against a ranked opponent, #25 Oregon State. Just as impressive was North Dakota State beating co-Big 12 champion Kansas State. Northern Iowa beat Iowa State; Eastern Illinois crushed San Diego State; McNeese State scored the most points ever for an FCS team against a FBS team (53) in beating South Florida; and Connecticut lost to Towson.
There are a couple of things I learned this weekend in the NCAA: 1) Never schedule a FCS powerhouse; Michigan learned that the hard way when 3-time FCS champion Appalachian State beat them in 2007. Now Oregon State and Kansas State have also learned that lesson. The talent gap isn't as big as you would think, especially if you take them lightly. 2) Kiss your automatic BCS bid goodbye American Athletic Conference. They are behind the Mountain West Conference, on par with Conference USA and just ahead of the Mid American Conference. Cincinnati and Louisville better jump out while the gettin' is good. 3) One word for the rest of the NCAA schedule besides Georgia v. Clemson and LSU v. TCU ... Boring! They should just make the first week the unofficial preseason game of college football.
As much as I like college football, it still doesn't hold a candle to the NFL. Sure, there is the rivalries and traditions; but those are slowly being destroyed by greedy conferences and universities. Got to love how Texas A&M doesn't play any of their rivals anymore. Notre Dame v. Michigan? Michigan considers it a rivalry, but Notre dame doesn't because they can't beat them 90% of the time like their other "rivals". No, the ACC is calling and Notre Dame would rather create a rivalry against Wake Forest and Duke. Also, way to kill the Big East every good team that has left since Virgina Tech and Miami. None of you have been or will be any good for a while (Pittsburgh, Syracuse). West Virginia is the poster child of this; way to almost lose to William & Mary. Rutgers and Maryland to the Big 10? Talk about creating some rivalries! The Big 10 has tradition but still can't count. They haven't had 10 teams since 1991.
NFL Regular Season
I am ready for some football! Some regular season NFL action. The preseason is completely meaningless unless your a Fantasy Football junkie or a gambling degenerate. All you have to do is go back to the 2008 Detroit Lions and their 4-0 preseason followed by a winless regular season to see how much the preseason actually matters.
The real football schedule is about to start this Thursday. Denver is hosting the Super Bowl champions because the Orioles needed that four game series against the White Sox was just too important. To their credit, however, they still have a chance to make the playoffs and they didn't back down to the NFL. Now we have the biggest underdog for a Super Bowl Champion at 9 points. Joe Flacco better be the best quarterback in the league if he wants to start the season with a win. Baltimore has to go on without Ray Lewis or Ed Reed on defense; but Denver is without Von Miller's services since he decided to do his best raver impression.
I am going to give some predictions for the Week 1 of the NFL regular season. If you are a beginner, you may want to learn how to shop around for the best NFL betting lines before you start placing bets on the games.
Week 1 Predictions
Thursday Night Opener
This game opened at Denver -8.5 but has quickly been pushed up a half point to Denver -9. This means a lot of people think that Denver is going to blow Baltimore out of the water. No so fast my friend. I have Denver winning this game, but I think it will be by a TD or less. The sportsbook that I use, Bovada, has yet to put out a Moneyline or Total for this game; they probably won't do so until tomorrow night or Thursday morning. Baltimore +9 (-125) means that Bovada thinks that Baltimore is going to cover. Why else would you have to put up $125 to win $100 on such an underdog?
We have a full schedule of Thursday Night games this season except for Week 17. I have never been that much of a fan of the Thursday Night games for two reasons: 1) The scores are always low and the games look sloppy without a full week of preperation. 2) The games are on NFL Network and they do the worst job of presenting games. If you ever want to bet on Thursday Night games, I suggest that you take the Under more often than not.
Sunday Games
New England is currently off the board because Buffalo is that horrible right now, even at home.
Pittsburgh is a TD favorite at home, but I see their offense struggling for at least this first game. They have no running backs (yes, Isaac Redman, Larod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones constitutes no running backs). They have no more deep threat (Mike Wallace to Miami) and not many redzone threats. Unless they beat Tennessee 9-0, I don't see how they cover a 7 point spread.
Atlanta +3 at New Orleans - I'm passing on this game. These two teams always play crazy games against each other. I can see either team winning by a lot or a close game.
Tampa Bay -3 at the New York Jets - There is no way that you can bet on the Jets, but the -3 points scares me a little because Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling. The Jets may not have the best defense, but they are at home and have some pride. I see a 14-13 score for this game. Unless the Total is less than 40 points, take the Under.
Kansas City -3.5 at Jacksonville - Pass, pass, pass. This is the blind beating the blind. KC has a new coach, new quarterback, new everything and Jacksonville is just as terrible as ever.
Cincinnati +3 at Chicago - Bears all the way in this one. Chicago plays much better at home than on the road. They may have a new coach but the defense should be able to stop either running back that Cincy throws at them. After that, they will pick off Andy Dalton a couple of times and win by at least a TD.
Miami +1 at Cleveland - I'm leaning Miami for the win but I'm not confident. Neither one of these teams inspires me into action. Cleveland doesn't even have a kicker right now. You might want to get one of those; they're kind of important.
Seattle -3 at Carolina - Classic trap game for Seattle. Their defense is no where near as good on the road as at home and they have to travel cross country for a 1:00PM ET start. Both spell bad news for the Seahawks. If I was betting on this game, I would take Carolina for the win straight up.
Minnesota +5.5 at Detroit - Did I read this right? How is Detroit a 5.5 favorite against anyone? I mean, this is the Lions that we are talking about. Detroit might win, but by 3 points or less. We'll see if David Akers can kick any better than last year now that he is in a dome.
Oakland +10 at Indianapolis - Colts all the way. The 10 points is being generous just so they get some action on this game. There is no way that Oakland keeps this within 2 TDs.
I'm going to pass on both 4:00PM ET games. Neither Arizona +4.5 at St Louis nor Green Bay +4.5 at San Francisco look appetizing to me. These games could both swing wildly one way or another.
Sunday Night Game
New York Giants +3 at Dallas - The Giants have made a habit of beating Dallas in prime time. Eli Manning has often had their number. This is going to be a high scoring game. I have the Giants winning by the score of 34-31.
Monday Night Games
Two Monday night games on the schedule for week 1: Philadelphia +3.5 at Washington and Houston -3.5 at San Diego. I'm not feeling confident about either of these games. Washington has to hope that RGIII is close to 100% or else this game will be close the entire way. I feel a little better about Houston on the road, but the 3.5 is scaring me a little bit. I think that this might be a field goal win for Houston.
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