Wednesday, August 20, 2014

NFL Betting and Margin of Victory

The NFL season is almost upon us and people all over American will be rejoicing. The NFL season has a lot of people excited: fans of the teams, fantasy football owners, and yes, people who bet on football. Betting lines are always a gamble, but here's some interesting things that you should know if you are planning on betting on the spread of an NFL game this season.

Have you ever wondered why so many NFL betting lines are set at -3, -4, or -7? It seems like it happens a lot doesn't it? Let’s take a look and see exactly how many times games land on these key numbers.

In the last 20 years the number 3 is the biggest key number in NFL betting. 782 games have landed on three for a total of 15.38 %. The second most common number is 7 with 8.04 % of the games landing on that number. If you add those together you find that over 23% of all NFL games land on either 7 or 3. That is nearly a quarter of all NFL games. Now you know why those two numbers are so popular with NFL linemakers. Here is the full chart showing the margin of victory by NFL teams in the past 21 years. This includes all games except the Super Bowls.

Margin of Victory Percentage of Games

0 - 0.20%

2 - 3.74% 3 - 15.38%

4 - 5.58%

5 - 3.15%

6 - 5.76%

7 - 8.04%

8 - 2.56% 9 - 1.83%

10  - 5.80%

11 - 3.28%

12 - 1.63%

13 - 3.13%

14 - 4.66%

15 - 1.63%

16 - 2.22%

17 - 3.85%

18 - 2.10%

19 - 1.80%

20 - 2.62%

21 - 2.62%

22 - 0.83%

23 - 1.20%

24 - 2.12%

25 - 0.92%

26 - 0.65%

27 - 1.67%

28 - 1.49%

29 - 0.31%

30 - 0.59%

31 - 1.18%

32 - 0.55%

33 - 0.26%

34 - 0.63%

35 - 0.57%

All of the margins higher than 35 are less than .50%

This table shows you the key numbers in the NFL, and why so many times when you look at the betting line, that you see numbers like 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14. The oddsmakers are well aware of these exact numbers and they will shade their lines accordingly.

This is one of the main reasons that many sportsbooks won’t let the bettors buy a ½ point on or off a 3 point spread. Since there are over 15% of all NFL games ending with a final margin of 3, sportsbooks might find it too risky for the chance of getting middle. This is why some football betting websites, like some of the ones found at www.NFLOnlineBetting.com, won’t allow customers to buy a half point down to 2.5 or a half point up to 3.5.

If you find a sportsbook that allows you to buy the half point on or off of 3, then it is always worth it for you to do it. The table shows that it is not worth it for any other number, including 7. It just does not prove profitable. Remember in your NFL betting this year that the key numbers are important and will affect you all year long.

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