I am seeing Louisville only favored by 4 at a few books. This game opened at -7.5. Louisville is always a publicly bet team. This is a huge move in my mind. I am going out on a limb and guessing that this is going to move up right before game time.
I saw the same thing for the UCLA game, opened at 10, moved to 17, then within the last couple of minutes moved down to 15.5.
Significant money has to go on these games to move these lines. I have a theory that I have been working on for quite some time. A ton of touts (people that sell picks) jump all over a team, which gets bet up a ton by people who pay for picks. That at the last minute, a ton of cash comes in on the other side. The touts were all over UCLA today, and they are also all on Kentucky tonight too.
This game reminds me of a lot of the early games that look like a good matchup, but end up being duds.
Saints - Colts game 1 NFL - Touts all over the Saints - Colts roll
LSU - Virginia Tech - Touts all over Va Tech - LSU blowout
There are more, but these are top of mind. Many of these games are the ones that I would notoriously over think. I am going to track this line movement vs touts picks and see if I can come up with something.
Liking Louisville a lot at -4.
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