Rough start back

OK, so 2 picks, two losers, and down 2.5 units pretty quickly. This is why money management is so important. And not just a plan, but discipline to keep with the plan as well.

Lets say for example sake that my bankroll is $1000.

My units, if I were to keep my 5%/15% bankroll management plan like I talked about before, would be right around $50.

2.5 units down = -$125
Bankroll = $875

At this point, I would adjust my units down to closer to $40 a unit (5% is ~$42). But this is the opposite of what most people do. They get down, they bet bigger to catch up. One too many of these "catch up/I'm due" bigger bets then your bankroll can handle and all of a sudden you have nothing.

The rub is when you hit these bets that catch you up, they become easier and easier to make. The smaller bets don't feel as fun anymore, and you start betting like that when you are up, down, even, whatever. And then one bad game/day/week and....thats that. I've been there..done that. It is a very easy trap to get into. Even if this is for entertainment, I am trying to show you how to stretch out that entertainment dollar.

There are people that say your bankroll should equal 100 units, and reevaluate after a week/month/set amount of time. I say make your units 5% of your bankroll whatever it is and have no more then 15% at risk at any one time. Both ideas are plans to keep you betting instead of redepositing.

Make your own plan, or at least think about a plan. What are you trying to accomplish. Make it through a whole season of baseball? Looking to hit a magic number to cash out on? Just thinking about it will give you a better chance of succeeding. Think about your goals. Right them down. Try out my plan, or come up with something you are comfortable with. The hardest part will be sticking to the plan.

I like this current % plan better then the 100 units plan because while during hot streaks you are naturally increasing your bets (bankroll goes up, 5% is more), and conversely during cold streaks you are decreasing your bets.

I have tried the 100 units,
5 3% games a day,
3 5% games a day,
a few others that were not thought out well.

On a closing note, I am envisioning Marcellus Wallace telling Butch "You feel that sting in your heart? That's pride f*****g with you." Pride = $$$ for casinos and the books. It is very natural for emotions to get in the way during losing streaks, bad beats, a crappy day in general, boredom, the list goes on and on. Tilt happens not just in poker. Do your best to control this tilt and you will be better off then most. When I feel it, it is time to take a day or week or whatever it takes off to get back under control.

If you have a plan and stick to it, there is always tomorrow to get it back. I'll be back tomorrow with some winners.

Got a betting plan you want to share?

Louisville down to (-4) on some books

I am seeing Louisville only favored by 4 at a few books. This game opened at -7.5. Louisville is always a publicly bet team. This is a huge move in my mind. I am going out on a limb and guessing that this is going to move up right before game time.

I saw the same thing for the UCLA game, opened at 10, moved to 17, then within the last couple of minutes moved down to 15.5.

Significant money has to go on these games to move these lines. I have a theory that I have been working on for quite some time. A ton of touts (people that sell picks) jump all over a team, which gets bet up a ton by people who pay for picks. That at the last minute, a ton of cash comes in on the other side. The touts were all over UCLA today, and they are also all on Kentucky tonight too.

This game reminds me of a lot of the early games that look like a good matchup, but end up being duds.

Saints - Colts game 1 NFL - Touts all over the Saints - Colts roll
LSU - Virginia Tech - Touts all over Va Tech - LSU blowout

There are more, but these are top of mind. Many of these games are the ones that I would notoriously over think. I am going to track this line movement vs touts picks and see if I can come up with something.

Liking Louisville a lot at -4.